ASSESSMENT OF ChANGES OF ThE SIzE ANd STRUCTURE OF FERRY TRANSPORT IN ThE BALTIC SEA REGION IN ThE YEARS 2011–2014

The aim of the research was an attempt to find the answer for basic research question: To what extent the ferry transport in the BSR has changed in recent years? Analysis of data and assessment became the main research methods. In addition, the functions of linear trends for the selected variables included in the study were estimated. The article presents the multi-aspects analysis of the transport of goods and passengers by ferry/ro-ro fleet in the Baltic Sea Region in 2011–2014. Following issues have been discussed: ferry/ro-ro fleets of the top 30 Baltic operators, ferry/ro-ro passengers in the top 30 Baltic ports, the number and structure of the transport of goods, passengers and freight units.


Introduction
The Baltic Sea is often treated as an internal sea of the European Union (Northern Europe; intercontinental shelf sea of the Atlantic Ocean).The countries of the Baltic Sea Region (the BSR) are: Denmark, Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Russia, Finland and Sweden. 1 The Baltic Sea region is highly diversified under the economic, geographical, natural (resources availability), political, civilization and historical reasons.Altogether, over 289 million people are inhabiting it [about 20% of the EU population ( 27)], whence directly in the seasides around 98-99 million, and indirectly, 190 million people. 2  In the BSR in April 2015 34 shipowners served a dense network of ferry/ ro-ro, which is one of its specific features.This form of navigation is considered to be dominant (without analysing container traffic).21 ferry/ro-ro operators offered car&passenger connections (ropax for short), 10 -a ro-ro combination and 3 -container&car connections. 3In particular areas of the Baltic Sea however, the degree of the concentration of ferry transports is diversified which is mainly due to the different economic potential of the BSR countries and therefore is affecting the size and directions of the trade exchange occurring between them.The ferry/ro-ro shipping is being used for the purposes of passenger and cargo transports, and in the case of the latter has a significant participation in the transport of high-value goods.4

The purpose and applied research methods
The aim of the research was an attempt to find the answer for basic research question: To what extent the ferry transport in the BSR has changed in recent years?Trying to find the answer, in the article a brief characteristic of the BSR was presented.Particular attention was paid to the size of the fleet of the top 30 operators, the key 30 ports of the Baltic Sea as regards transshipped freight units, the type, number and gross tonnage of the vessels operated by them, the length 1 Sometimes, due to the geographic location and existing transport routes leading among others through the territory of Denmark, Norway is also ranked among these countries.Also, economic, historical, cultural reasons as well as the membership in different regional organizations are speaking for it, which means that in some studies among the BSR countries Iceland also appears.This study focuses on the basic countries belonging to the BSR (excluding Iceland).2 E. Czermański, Charakterystyka gospodarcza Regionu Morza Bałtyckiego, p. 17, http:// studiaimaterialy.pl/wpcontent/uploads/2013/07/ZN-2012-ITiHM-ECz.pdf (access 29.08.2015).
3 Baltic ro-ro & ferry market 2014/15, "Baltic Transport Journal", p. 11;http://www.balticpress.com/ftp2/baltic_ro-ro_ferry_yearbook_2014-15_preview.pdf (access 02.09.2015).Assessment of Changes of the Size And Structure of Ferry Transport... of the shipping lines, the number of passengers carried and the structure of the ferry/ro-ro traffic by countries, the size and structure by type of the transported cars, buses, other road vehicles, and the served journeys.The article attempts to analyze and assess the size and structure of the ferry transport in the BSR in the years 2011-2014.For this purpose, mainly tabular and graphical form of presentations were used.Besides, analysis of data and assessment became the main research methods.In addition, the functions of linear trends for the selected variables included in the study were estimated.Identification of trends matching to the empirical data required to use the coefficient of determination R 2 , which indicates the extent to which trends describe the course of the dependent variables.

Research findings
In terms of number of vessels among ferry/ro-ro operators six of them dominate (as of April 2015): Finnlines (22 vessels; 644,8 thousand GT), Stena Lane (17 vessels; 512 thousand GT), DFDS Seaways (17 vessels; 493,3 thousand GT), Tallink/Silja (12 vessels; 483,8 thousand GT), Scandlines (12 vessels; 135,9 thousand GT) i Transfennica (10 vessels; 225,9 thousand GT).They have a total of 90 units (for 171 vessels operating in the Baltic Sea), which is over half of the fleet (52.63%).For comparison: in 2012 Finnlines had at their disposal 14 vessels (505,7 thousand GT), and in 2013 owned 12 units (433,7 thousand GT); in 2012 Stena Line had 10 vessels (316,6 thousand GT), and in 2013 -18 (518,3 thousand GT), DFDS Seaways in the years 2012 and 2013 had 10 vessels (262,6 thousand GT), at the same time Tallink/Silja owned 11 vessels (472,2-512,1 thousand GT), however, Scandlines in 2012 had 19 vessels (349,3 thousand GT), and in 2013 -10 units (127,1 thousand GT). 5 Also transport market in the BSR is constantly changing.The total length of shipping lines served by them includes 198 435 km (approx.60%).In terms of gross tonnage of ships on the transport market in this region also Viking Line, Color Line, TT-Line, SOL Continental Line and Unity Line are respected.Other data are shown in Table 1  In 2014 the 30 largest ports in the BSR (of 71) handled a total of 92.865 million passengers.Passenger traffic in the best of them (Helsinki, Tallinn, Stockholm, Helsingborg, Helisngør, Puttgarden and Rødby) took a total of 55.730 million passengers (60.01%).Comparing to the previous year, the largest gains in this respect Gdynia and Karlskrona recorded (by +10.0%each), then Stromstad (+9.7%),Aarhus (+7.7%),Rostock (+6.6 %), Hirtshals (+5.6%) and Kapellskӓr (+ 5.1%).The worst results concern Riga (-12.5%),Turku (-4.9%) and Stockholm (-4.3%). Oher data for the years 2011-2014 are shown in Table 2.In the years 2011-2014 the number of passengers at the top 30 ports in the BSR in this respect increased from 88 804 thousand to 92 865 thousand, so by 4 061 thousand persons (4.57%).Changes of this magnitude in the studied years are described by the function of a linear trend y = 1 315.7 t + 87 851 (Figure 1).The estimated trend in 95.19% describes the development of the dependent variable, and means that in the studied years, the number of passengers in ports increased statistically on average from year to year by about 1315.7 thousand people.Assessment of Changes of the Size And Structure of Ferry Transport...In 2014 Swedish ports (28 089 thousand people; 30.25%) and Danish ports (26 288 thousand people; 28.31%) dominated in handling passenger ferry/ro-ro traffic in the BSR.Also Finnish ports have quite a large market share (18 094 thousand people; 19.48%).In total, Sweden (11 ports), Denmark (9 ports) and Finland (4 ports) in the segment of passenger transport have a 78.04% market share (Fig. 2).In 2014 Swedish ports (28 089 thousand people; 30.25%) and Danish ports (26 288 thousand people; 28.31%) dominated in handling passenger ferry/ ro-ro traffic in the BSR.Also Finnish ports have quite a large market share (18 094 thousand people; 19.48%).In total, Sweden (11 ports), Denmark (9 ports) and Finland (4 ports) in the segment of passenger transport have a 78.04% market share (Figure 2).
thousand people; 28.31%) dominated in handling passenger ferry/ro-ro traffic in the BSR.Also Finnish ports have quite a large market share (18 094 thousand people; 19.48%).In total, Sweden (11 ports), Denmark (9 ports) and Finland (4 ports) in the segment of passenger transport have a 78.04% market share (Fig. 2).A list of the key 30 ports in the BSR in the years 2011-2014 in terms of handling freight units (trucks, trailers, containers, wagons) is shown in Table 3.In the analysed years they transshipped a total of 29 785 588 freight units.In 2014 in comparison to 2013 the biggest positive changes in this area related to the following ports: Ust-Luga (+25.0%),Nynӓshamn (+21.2%),Karlskrona (+13.6%) and Gdynia (+11.6%), while negative ports were St. Petersburg (-14.3%) and Stockholm (-6.1%).
In the years 2011-2014 the number of freight units in the top 30 ports in the BSR in this respect increased from 7 039 968 to 7 738 207 (9.92%).Changes of this magnitude in the studied years are described by the function of a linear trend y = 187 724 t + 7 000 000 (Figure 3).The estimated trend in 89.98% describes the development of the dependent variable, and means that in the studied years, the number of freight units transshipped at analyzed ports increased statistically on average by 187 724 from year to year.In the years 2011-2014 the number of freight units in the top 30 ports in the BSR in this respect increased from 7 039 968 to 7 738 207 (9.92%).Changes of this magnitude in the studied years are described by the function of a linear trend y=187 724 t + 7 000 000 (Fig. 3).
The estimated trend in 89.98% describes the development of the dependent variable, and means that in the studied years, the number of freight units transshipped at analyzed ports increased statistically on average by 187 724 from year to year.The volume of rotation of the key 30 ports in the BSR in handling freight units in 2014 is shown in Fig. 4 and dominated by the 9 ports in Sweden (2 512 162 units; 32.46% of the market), 4 German ports (1 792 792 units, 23.17% of the market) and 6 Danish ports (1 250 271 units, 16.16% of the market).Polish ports of Świnoujście and Gdynia transshipped a total of 483 452 units, which gave them a 6.25% share in the market.The volume of rotation of the key 30 ports in the BSR in handling freight units in 2014 is shown in Fig. 4 and dominated by the 9 ports in Sweden (2 512 162 units; 32.46% of the market), 4 German ports (1 792 792 units, 23.17% of the market) and 6 Danish ports (1 250 271 units, 16.16% of the market).Polish ports of Świnoujście and Gdynia transshipped a total of 483 452 units, which gave them a 6.25% share in the market.

Conclusion
1.The study shows that in the Baltic Sea Region 34 ferry/ro-ro shipowners functioned in 2011-2014.The rate of ferry/ro-ro market concentration on the Baltic Sea is very large, because 6 operators (Finnlines, Stena Lane, DFDS Seaways, Tallink/Silja, Scandlines and Transfenica) has 90 (of 171) vessels (53% of the fleet), whose total gross tonnage in April 2015 was 2 495 635 GT (60%).The total length of shipping lines served by them amounted to 198 435 km (60%).2. The most important amongst of 30 major ports of the BSR in terms of passenger numbers are: Helsinki (Finland), Tallinn (Estonia), Stockholm (Sweden), Helsingborg (Sweden), Helsingor (Denmark), Puttgarden (Germany) and Rødby (Denmark ).In 2014, they took a total of 54 920 thousand passengers, which means 59% market share.3.In the years 2011-2014 the number of passengers at the top 30 ports of the BSR in this respect increased from 88 804 thousand to 92 865 thousand, so 4 061 thousand persons (4.57%).Changes of this magnitude in the studied years are described by the function of a linear trend y = 1 315.7 t + 87 851. 4. In 2014, following ports dominated in the service of ferry/ro-ro passenger traffic: Swedish (30%), Danish (28%) and Finnish (20%), which gives them a total of 78% of the market.For comparison, the part of the most important Polish port of Gdynia in this respect amounted to 560 thousand persons (0.6%).Nevertheless, the port of Gdynia, as well as the port of Karlskrona, recorded the dynamics of changes of this magnitude in comparison to 2013, as in both cases in 2014 in comparison to 2013 a 10% increase in passenger numbers was reported.5. Thirty most important ports in the 2011-2014 of the BSR handled a total of 29 785 588 freight units.Changes of this magnitude in the studied years are described by the function of a linear trend y = 187 724 t + 7 000 000. 6.In 2014, the highest rotation of freight units was recorded in the ports of Lübeck/Travemünde (744 860), Trelleborg (670 776), Helsinki (503 354), Gothenburg (497 609), Rostock (444 781), Puttgarden (412 151) and Rødby.The total market share of these 7 ports was therefore 3 685 682 units (47.63%).Polish ports of Świnoujście and Gdynia, transhipped a total of 483 452 units, which gave them a 6.25% share of the market.7.In 2014, in comparison with 2011, the largest gains in handled passenger traffic in the BSR respect port Aarhus recorded (+90.6%), and next: Odden (+39.4%),Rostock (+21.89%),Karlskrona (in this one case in comparison with 2012, +19.4%),Turku (+15.8%) and Gdynia (+15.5%).The largest decrease in handled passenger traffic in the BSR: Helsingør (-8.5%),Helsingborg (-8.2%),Stockholm (-7.4%) and Riga (-5.8%) recorded.8.In 2014, in comparison with 2011, the largest gains in ferry/ro-ro Baltic ports in respect of transshipped units, the following ports: Ust-Luga (in this case in compare to 2013, +59.4%),Hanko (+52%), St. Petersburg (in this case in compare to 2013, +46.9%),Karlskrona (+45.9%),Tallinn (+29.2%),Świnoujście (+20.8%) and Gdynia (+19.2%)recorded.The largest decrease in ferry/ro-ro Baltic ports in respect of transshipped units, the follow-

Fig. 1 .
Fig. 1.Passenger traffic at the key 30 ports of the BSR in this respect in 2011-2014 (in thousand).The function of a linear trend.

Fig. 3 .
Fig. 3.The number of freight units in the top 30 ports of the BSR in this respect in the years 2011-2014.The function of a linear friend.

Fig. 4 .
Fig. 4.The volume and structure of rotation of freight units in the major 30 ports in the BSR in this respect in 2014 (vol.; %).